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A look behind the history
The use of nuclear technology was first developed in the 1940s,
and during the Second World War research initially focussed on bomb
production. In December 1953, President Eisenhower's "Atoms
for Peace" speech set the US on a course of strong government
support for the international use of nuclear power. It would provide
energy "too cheap to meter" - this false assumption became
a popular rallying statement for nuclear advocates. In 1974, the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) forecasted 4,450,000 MW
of nuclear capacity by the year 2000. In fact, the combined installed
nuclear capacity of the 436 units operating in the world in the
year 2000 was less than 352,000 MW.
Facts on current use
Nuclear power currently provides about 17% of the world's electricity,
corresponding to 7% of commercial primary energy consumption and
about 2,5 % of global final energy. In January 2006, there were
443 commercial nuclear generating units throughout the world, with
a total capacity of about 369 Gigawatts.
Officially, 24 reactors are currently under construction, but some
of these builds were initiated more than a decade ago. This applies,
for example, to Atucha-2 in Argentina (since 1981), Busher-1 in
Iran (since 1975) and Kmelnitzki-3 and 4 (since 1986/87). 118 (36
GW) have been shut down to date.
Only 31 countries of the 191 UN member states operate
nuclear power plants. Three of the six biggest users of nuclear
energy (the U.S., France, Japan, Germany, Russia and South-Korea)
are nuclear weapon states and they produce about three quarters
of the world's nuclear electricity. Half of the world's nuclear
countries are located in Western and Central Europe and count for
over one third of the world's nuclear production.
Source: Power
Reactor Information System (PRIS), IAEA 2005 (Click on graph
for an enlarged view)
Nuclear Power in Europe
The enlarged EU operates 148 reactors producing about 31 percent
of its electricity, a higher proportion than in North America, Japan
or Russia. Almost half (45%) of the nuclear electricity in the EU25
is generated by France.
In May 2004 ten new countries, half of which have operating nuclear
power plants, joined the European Union; these include the Czech
Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia. The two additional
countries expected to join the EU in the next few years, Bulgaria
and Romania, also exploit nuclear technology.
In total, 107 reactors have been permanently shut down at an average
age of about 21 years. Over the last 12 years, 32 reactors have
been shut down and 52 have been connected to the grid, which corresponds
to a net addition of one and a half reactors per year.
In order to evaluate the status of the world nuclear industry,
it is helpful to estimate the number of units that would have to
be replaced over the coming decades in order to maintain the current
number of operating plants. We have considered an average lifetime
of 40 years per reactor - with the exception of the remaining 18
German nuclear plants that, according to German legislation, will
be shut down at an average age of about 32 years - which is optimistic
as the average age of reactors closed to date has been 21 years,
but possible given the progress made with the current generation
of plants compared to the previous ones.
Over the next 10 years, 82 new reactors would have to start up
operation. The calculation takes into account the 18 reactors (with
a firm start-up date) out of the 27 units listed as under construction
by the IAEA as of June 2004. In other words, another 73 reactors
would have to be planned, built and started up by 2015. This is
virtually impossible given the long lead times for nuclear power
projects. One EPR in Finland and one more in France will not change
the broader picture. Furthermore, over the next 20 years, a total
of 280 units would have to be replaced in order to maintain the
same number of plants operating today.
China is said to have plans for up to 32 new nuclear plants by
2020 - a prospect that seems highly unlikely but not impossible.
But even such an extraordinary undertaking in terms of capital investment,
technical and organizational challenge would hardly cover more than
10% of the number of units that would by then have reached the age
of forty. The number of nuclear power plants operating in the world
will most likely decline over the next two decades with a rather
sharper decline to be expected after 2020.
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